It is necessary to take into consideration that in the short term not all variables play an important role in the supply-demand relationship for foreign exchange. The price or exchange ratio can be considered a demand variable, which is influenced by the external market of goods, the financial market (derivatives), and its own market: the exchange rate (the variable itself generates its own dynamics) and the speculation of this same market. Moreover, purchasing power parity (PPP) considers the exchange rate as a price ( Taylor & Taylor, 2004) demonstrate that PPP shows deviations from the expected value in the short term. 2 The amount of Mexican pesos that moves over two days in the foreign exchange market is much greater than the exports and imports combined in a single quarter this is a key factor in the exchange rate being subject to speculation within the market currency. In the Mexican current account in the first quarter of 2016 imports reached USD 89 133 million and exports were USD 85 148 million.
The latter currency had a total trading volume of all currencies of 87.6% in 2016. The daily turnover of the peso oscillates around USD 112 000 million and 97% of these transactions are made against the US dollar. The Mexican peso (MXN) is the tenth most traded currency in the world. Predicting the volatility of the exchange rate in the short term is undoubtedly a challenge for heavily traded emerging markets, which are subject to natural speculation against less volatile currencies in the short term. Palabras clave: Tendencias de Google Similitud empírica Niveles de agregación Volatilidad Tipo de cambio Además, de que de acuerdo con nuestro saber existe escasa literatura que utilice las tendencias de Google para explicar variables económicas relevantes. Se concluye que el tomar en consideración la variable de tendencia de Google no es suficiente para explicar el comportamiento volátil semanal del tipo de cambio y que es necesario incorporar más niveles de agregación. Por ejemplo, un inversor que desea conocer el valor que tomará una variable en el futuro tomará en consideración información relevante, conocida y disponible, y la ponderará para calcular su pronóstico.
VALOR DEL DOLAR HOY MEXICO SERIES
Algunos de estos modelos utilizan series de tiempo, mientras que otros utilizan la función de similitud, que captura la forma cognitiva del razonamiento humano. Se realizó un comparativo de modelos que en la literatura ya han incorporado las tendencias de Google como variable explicativa. Keywords: Google trends Empirical similarity Aggregation levels Volatility, Exchange rateĮn este trabajo se muestra la ventaja de usar tendencias del motor de búsqueda de Google para pronosticar la volatilidad de corto plazo (semanal) del tipo de cambio peso mexicano - dólar estadounidense. Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, literature on the subject of using Google Trends to explain relevant economic variables is relatively scarce. We conclude that taking into account the Google Trends variable helps explains partially the behaviour of volatility and it is necessary to incorporate more aggregation levels.
For example, an investor who needs to know the value that a variable will take in the future will take into account relevant, known, and available information, and weigh it to calculate the forecast. Some of the models are based on time series, whereas others are based on the similarity function, which captures the cognitive form of human reasoning. We perform a comparison of models in the literature that have used Google Trends to examine explanatory variables.
We show the advantage of using Google search engine trends to forecast the volatility of the short-term (weekly) exchange rate between the Mexican peso and United States dollar.
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